EU FDI screening will move to a new 2028 regime after a 40% rise in notified cases

AI Summary

The EU FDI screening regulation moves to a new regime on 17 January 2028. The cost to an importer is transaction timing, not a duty rate or fee. European Commission figures show notifications rose 40% from 477 in 2024 to 667 in 2025; 88% of cases closed within 15 days and 12% required an in-depth security risk assessment. Build the 15-day closure into ordinary closing plans and treat the 12% track as a separate contingency before financing, signing and integration deadlines lock.

What happened

The new EU FDI screening regulation is the instrument that moves the regime to 17 January 2028. No regulation number appears in the supplied source pack, so none is printed here. On 14 October 2026, the European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade and Economic Security, published the caseload figures that show what the incoming regime inherits.

EU Member States notified 667 investments to the Commission in 2025, up from 477 notifications in 2024. The Commission states that notifications to the EU cooperation mechanism increased by 40% between 2024 and 2025, the highest annual rise since the mechanism’s introduction.

The 2025 caseload split into two useful planning groups. Of the 667 cases notified, 88% closed within 15 days. Separately, 12% of notified investments required an in-depth security risk assessment, a 4% rise compared with 2024. The Commission issued opinions in less than 2% of cases, consistent with the pattern in 2024 and 2023.

15-day closure — a notified EU FDI screening case that the relevant process closed within 15 days. This is an aggregate processing outcome for 2025, not a universal legal deadline, a duty rate, a filing fee or a guarantee for an individual transaction.

The table below turns the reported percentages into case-count equivalents against the 2025 total of 667.

Because cases are whole units, the nearest whole-case equivalents are 587 closures within 15 days and 80 in-depth assessments. The opinion bound is 13.34 cases, so the whole-case count at that bound is 13 or fewer. These equivalents are arithmetic from the reported shares, not separately reported counts.

For the underlying notification total and threshold context, see EU FDI screening: 667 notifications in 2025, 12% sent to in-depth review, new FISR applies. The broader schedule is covered in EU FDI Screening 2026 Rules, Notification Volumes and 2028 Timelines for Importers, and the volume surge is examined in EU FDI screening notifications rose 40% and 12% of deals needed a deeper look.

Why now

The timing matters because use of the system moved sharply before the regime change. The count increased by 190 notifications, rising from 477 in 2024 to 667 in 2025. The Commission describes that movement as the highest annual rise since the cooperation mechanism began.

The deeper-review share also moved. In 2025, 12% of notified investments required an in-depth security risk assessment, a 4% rise compared with 2024. At the same time, Commission opinions remained rare at less than 2% of cases, in keeping with 2024 and 2023.

The 17 January 2028 regime therefore arrives after a surge in notifications and a larger deep-review share, not after a quiet period. For an importer, the relevant response is to schedule around the observed closure pattern and separate ordinary closures from in-depth assessments.

So what

The judgement is straightforward: these figures support timing triage, not a monetary landed-cost calculation. There is no duty rate, fee or penalty in the supplied statistics. The cost is the risk that financing, purchase-agreement completion, supplier integration, hiring, stock transfer or market launch shifts while screening continues.

For a transaction following the 88% pattern, the observed closure block is 15 days. If an agreement schedules completion 15 days after notification, the timetable matches the aggregate fast-closure group. If the commercial target is completion before 17 January 2028, the arithmetic reference point is 15 days before that target. This is reverse counting from an observed closure period, not a statement of a legal filing deadline.

The in-depth track requires different treatment. The 12% share equals 80.04 of the 667 notified cases, or 80 whole cases after rounding. For a single transaction, that figure is a frequency indicator, not a prediction. The source provides no common duration for in-depth assessments, so no fixed number of extra review days can be calculated from the supplied material.

The timing formula is:

0.88 × 15 days + 0.12 × D

The fast-track component equals 13.2 days. D represents the duration of an in-depth assessment, and the source does not supply D. A schedule containing only 15 days therefore reflects the observed ordinary closure group but does not quantify the complete timing risk for the 12% group.

The opinion statistic is narrower still. Less than 2% of 667 cases is below 13.34 cases, or 13 whole cases at the bound. The source does not state that opinions block transactions, impose charges or produce a fixed outcome. Treat the figure as evidence that Commission opinions were uncommon, not as a prohibition rate.

For a normalized portfolio of 100 notified investments, the aggregate split points to 88 cases in the 15-day closure group and 12 cases in the in-depth group. An importer with a multi-target pipeline can use that split to assign transaction-team capacity and decide which agreements need explicit review conditions. The aggregate figures do not identify differences by sector, investor origin, deal size or Member State, so they do not replace a transaction-specific notification analysis.

The practical planning rule is to build 15 days around the ordinary closure pattern and create a separate contingency for the in-depth track. Financing expiry, long-stop dates, purchase-price adjustments, integration launch plans and supplier communications should all distinguish between those two paths. More detail on the second path is in EU FDI Screening From 17 January 2028: The In-Depth Review Risk in Numbers.

How confident

Confirmed. Every statistical figure in this article comes from one European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade and Economic Security release dated 14 October 2026. That release states the 40% increase between 2024 and 2025, the totals of 477 and 667, the 88% closure share within 15 days, the 12% in-depth-assessment share, the 4% rise compared with 2024, and the less-than-2% opinion share consistent with 2024 and 2023. The 17 January 2028 regime timing is the fixed regime date used for this guide. No regulation number appears in the source pack.

Inferred. Applying the 88% and 12% aggregate shares to one importer’s transaction is an inference. The figures describe the 2025 caseload overall and do not break outcomes down by sector, origin, investment value, transaction structure or Member State. The 15-day figure is a historical closure outcome, not an assurance that a future case closes in 15 days. The case-count equivalents and the 13.2-day fast-track component are arithmetic from that single document. No in-depth-assessment duration is available, so the value of D remains unknown.

What would change my mind. A final regulation text, official Commission guidance, a revised statistical dataset or published in-depth-assessment durations would change the calculation. Sector-level or Member State-level data would also change how the aggregate shares apply to a specific acquisition. Any published fee, charge or duty schedule would require a separate monetary landed-cost model. Until such material is supplied, the figures remain aggregate screening statistics rather than transaction-specific legal deadlines or costs.

Work it out: the landed cost calculator

Different question, same method: the step-by-step guides

For you

• Importers signing an EU target before 17 January 2028: count 15 days backward from the planned completion date, place that reference point in the transaction timetable, and add a separate condition for any in-depth security risk assessment.
• Importers financing an EU acquisition: align financing expiry and drawdown dates with the observed 15-day fast-closure block, and require written confirmation before waiving any condition tied to an in-depth assessment.
• Importers integrating an EU distributor or facility: hold launch, hiring and stock-transfer commitments until closure, and use the 12% in-depth share as the trigger for a contingency review rather than as a duty cost.
• Importers building a 2028 acquisition pipeline: log each notification against the regime date, track whether closure arrives within 15 days, and compare actual in-depth-assessment frequency with the 2025 12% share.

The data point

The central planning number is the 15-day closure recorded for 88% of the 667 cases notified in 2025.

FAQ

Is the 15-day closure a legal deadline for every EU FDI notification?

No. The supplied Commission figure says 88% of 667 notified cases closed within 15 days in 2025. It describes what happened across aggregate cases, not a universal procedural deadline. The remaining 12% required an in-depth security risk assessment, and the source material does not supply a common closure period for that track. Treat 15 days as the observed fast-track closure block for planning. Do not treat it as a guaranteed closing date, a fee trigger, or a substitute for the notification rules that apply to the specific investment.

What monetary cost does the 17 January 2028 regime add to an import business?

The supplied figures contain no duty rate, application fee, penalty amount or per-transaction charge. The cost shown here is timing risk around an EU acquisition, investment or corporate transaction. Notifications increased 40% from 477 in 2024 to 667 in 2025. That higher caseload increases the importance of planning around review outcomes. A transaction in the 88% group has an observed 15-day closure reference. A transaction in the 12% group enters an in-depth assessment with no aggregate duration in the source. Finance, integration and launch dates need to reflect that difference.

How much timing contingency should an importer build before the regime starts?

Use two blocks, not one. Put 15 days into the transaction schedule for the observed closure period associated with 88% of 2025 cases. Then add a separate in-depth-assessment contingency because 12% of notified investments entered that track. The source does not provide the duration of that track, so no fixed number of extra days is calculated here. The formula is 0.88 × 15 plus 0.12 × D, with D representing the unknown in-depth duration. This yields 13.2 days from the fast-track component alone, not a complete expected closure period. Confirm the applicable notification route and agreement conditions before setting a completion date.

How we calculated this

2024 notifications = 477
2025 notifications = 667

Increase = (667 - 477) / 477
         = 190 / 477
         = 0.3983
         ≈ 40%

Fast-closure share = 88%
Fast-closure equivalent = 667 × 0.88
                        = 586.96
                        ≈ 587 whole cases

In-depth-assessment share = 12%
In-depth equivalent = 667 × 0.12
                    = 80.04
                    ≈ 80 whole cases

Opinion share = less than 2%
Opinion bound = 667 × 0.02
              = 13.34
Whole cases at the bound = 13 or fewer

Fast-track weighted component = 0.88 × 15
                              = 13.2 days

Complete timing formula = 0.88 × 15 + 0.12 × D
D = in-depth-assessment duration, not supplied

The point

The 2028 EU FDI regime is a timing risk to plan around: use 15 days for the observed ordinary closure pattern, use the 12% in-depth share to trigger a separate contingency, and do not treat either figure as a duty rate, fee or guaranteed deadline.