EU FDI screening notifications jumped 40% in 2025, and 12% of deals now face in-depth review

AI Summary

The European Commission’s sixth annual FDI screening report records 667 investments notified in 2025, up from 477 in 2024 — a 40% increase. 88% of those cases closed within 15 days. 12% went to an in-depth security risk assessment, and 53% of the in-depth cases were in manufacturing. The new Foreign Investment Screening Regulation applies from 17 January 2028. For an importer buying a Chinese-owned plant or building one in the EU, the cost is the delay on the one deal in eight that does not clear in 15 days.

What happened

The European Commission published its sixth annual report on the screening of foreign direct investment into the EU. The headline movement is in the volume of deals that reached the EU cooperation mechanism, the channel through which Member States notify the Commission of investments that pass their national screens.

In 2025, Member States notified 667 investments to the Commission. In 2024 the figure was 477. That is a 40% increase between the two years.

The outcome split is the part that matters to anyone planning a deal:

The 12% figure is described in the report as a 4% rise compared with the previous year. The manufacturing share of in-depth cases, 53%, is up from 50% in 2024.

Separately, the EU’s new Foreign Investment Screening Regulation (FISR) was adopted on 17 June 2026 and applies from 17 January 2028. The report covers the year before that regulation takes effect; the 2025 numbers describe the regime as it runs now, not the one that starts in 2028.

Cooperation mechanism — the EU process under which a Member State that screens an investment notifies the European Commission and the other Member States, who then have a window to comment or raise concerns. A deal “notified” under this mechanism has already entered a national screen; the notification is not the start of screening, it is the point at which the deal becomes visible to the rest of the EU.

Why now

The report lands in October 2026, four months after the FISR was adopted on 17 June 2026 and fifteen months before it applies on 17 January 2028. That gap is the reason to read the 2025 numbers now rather than in 2028.

The 2025 figures describe behaviour under the current framework. The FISR replaces that framework from 17 January 2028. An investor who reads only the 2025 report is reading the last full year of the old regime; an investor who waits for the 2028 report to size the risk has already committed capital.

The volume move is the signal. Notifications rose 40% in a single year, from 477 to 667. The in-depth share rose to 12%, a 4% increase on the prior year. Both moved in the same direction at the same time.

So what

The judgement is this: the base case for a Chinese acquisition or greenfield investment in the EU is a 15-day close, and the tail case is an in-depth assessment. Price the tail, not the base.

Start with the arithmetic on the 667 notified cases. 88% closed within 15 days. 12% did not. On 667 cases, 12% is roughly 80 deals that went to in-depth review in 2025. That is the population that carries the delay.

Now apply it to a single deal. An importer acquiring a Chinese-owned manufacturing plant in the EU is buying into the segment where the in-depth share concentrates: 53% of in-depth cases were in manufacturing. A manufacturing deal is not drawing from the 12% average; it is drawing from a pool where manufacturing is the majority of the in-depth caseload.

Work one case. A Chinese-owned components plant in the EU is on the block at a purchase price the buyer has already modelled. The buyer’s closing timetable assumes the 15-day path — the 88% outcome. If the deal lands in the 12%, the 15-day assumption is wrong and the closing date moves to whenever the in-depth assessment concludes. The report does not give a duration for in-depth assessments, so the buyer cannot put a number of days on the tail. What the buyer can do is hold the deal’s financing and integration costs against a closing date that is not 15 days out.

Work a second case, the greenfield route. A Chinese manufacturer building a new EU plant is not acquiring an existing entity, but the investment still enters a national screen and, if notified, the cooperation mechanism. The 667 figure counts notified investments, and the report does not split acquisitions from greenfield in the figures supplied here. The exposure is the same shape: the deal either clears in 15 days or it does not, and the 12% is the share that does not.

Work a third case, the portfolio route. An importer that holds several small EU investments rather than one large one faces the 12% once per notified deal, not once per group. At 667 notifications and 12% in-depth, the per-deal probability is the unit that matters. A group with four notifiable deals is running the 12% four times.

The cost is not a duty and it is not a tariff. It is the cost of capital and the cost of a plan built on a closing date that holds 88% of the time. The number to carry into the deal model is 12%, and the segment to carry alongside it is manufacturing at 53% of in-depth cases.

For the surrounding regime, the notification thresholds and the 2028 timeline are set out in EU FDI screening: 667 notifications in 2025, 12% sent to in-depth review, new FISR applies and in EU FDI Screening 2026 Rules, Notification Volumes and 2028 Timelines for Importers. The processing side — how long notifications take and what a third-country investor files — is in 2025 EU FDI screening notification volumes and processing timelines for third-country investors.

How confident

Confirmed. The European Commission’s sixth annual FDI screening report states that 667 investments were notified in 2025, up from 477 in 2024, a 40% increase. It states that 88% of the 667 cases were closed within 15 days and that 12% required an in-depth security risk assessment, a 4% rise on the previous year. It states that manufacturing accounted for 53% of in-depth cases, up from 50% in 2024. It states that the new FISR was adopted on 17 June 2026 and applies from 17 January 2028. Every figure in this article comes from that report and the Commission’s own summary of it.

Inferred. The count of roughly 80 in-depth deals is my arithmetic on the published 12% of 667, not a figure the report states. The report does not give a duration for in-depth assessments, so the size of the delay on the tail case is not in the document and I have not put a number on it. The report does not split notified investments into acquisitions and greenfield, so the greenfield case in “So what” rests on the assumption that greenfield investments enter the same notification channel — an inference, not a stated fact. The 12% is an average across all notified deals; the manufacturing concentration at 53% of in-depth cases is the only segment split the supplied figures give, and I have not extended it to any other sector. All of this rests on a single document, the sixth annual report, and I have not cross-checked it against a second source.

What would change my mind. A later Commission report showing the in-depth share falling back toward the prior year’s level would undercut the tail-risk framing. A published duration for in-depth assessments would replace the open-ended delay in “So what” with a number. A split of the 667 notifications into acquisitions and greenfield would confirm or kill the greenfield case. And the FISR’s own text, once it applies from 17 January 2028, would show whether the 2025 pattern carries into the new regime or resets.

Also read: EU imposes provisional safeguard measures on grain-oriented electrical steel

Also read: EU trade defence stayed high in 2025, and three cases carried retroactive duties

Work it out: the landed cost calculator

Different question, same method: the step-by-step guides

Also read: EU FDI screening: 88% of 2025 cases closed in 15 days, new regime applies 17 January 2028

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Also read: China’s imports rose 23.6% in the first ten months of 2026

For you

• Importers acquiring a Chinese-owned EU plant: treat the 15-day close as the base case and hold financing against the 12% tail, because manufacturing is 53% of in-depth cases.
• Importers building a greenfield EU plant: assume the investment enters a national screen and the cooperation mechanism, and do not put a fixed closing date in the integration plan until the screen clears.
• Importers running several small EU investments: count the 12% once per notified deal, not once per group, and size the delay exposure across the whole portfolio.
• Importers whose EU deal closes before 17 January 2028: model the deal under the current framework, because the FISR does not apply until that date.
• Importers whose EU deal closes after 17 January 2028: read the 2025 report as the last full year of the old regime and expect the FISR to govern the screen your deal enters.

The data point

12% of the 667 investments notified to the Commission in 2025 required an in-depth security risk assessment.

FAQ

How many EU FDI deals were notified in 2025, and how does that compare with 2024?

EU Member States notified 667 investments to the European Commission in 2025. In 2024 the figure was 477. That is a 40% increase between the two years, according to the Commission’s sixth annual FDI screening report. The notification count covers investments that passed a national screen and entered the EU cooperation mechanism, so it measures deals that were already visible to a Member State authority, not the total volume of foreign investment into the EU. The 40% move is the largest single-year change the supplied figures record, and it is the number to use when sizing how much busier the mechanism has become.

What share of notified deals went to in-depth review, and where did they concentrate?

12% of the 667 notified investments required an in-depth security risk assessment in 2025. The report describes that as a 4% rise compared with the previous year. Manufacturing accounted for 53% of the in-depth cases, up from 50% in 2024. The remaining 88% of notified cases closed within 15 days. For an importer planning a Chinese acquisition or greenfield investment in the EU, the 12% is the share that does not take the 15-day path, and the 53% manufacturing concentration is the segment where the in-depth caseload sits. A manufacturing deal draws from the concentrated pool, not from the 12% average.

When does the new EU Foreign Investment Screening Regulation apply, and what does that mean for a deal now?

The new Foreign Investment Screening Regulation was adopted on 17 June 2026 and applies from 17 January 2028. A deal that closes before that date is screened under the current framework, which is the framework the 2025 report describes. A deal that closes after 17 January 2028 enters the FISR regime. The 2025 figures — 667 notifications, 88% closed within 15 days, 12% in-depth, 53% of in-depth cases in manufacturing — are the last full year of the current regime. Use them to size the screen a deal faces now, and treat the FISR as the rule set that governs any deal closing from 17 January 2028 onward.

How we calculated this

Notifications, 2025:                    667
Notifications, 2024:                    477
Increase:                               667 - 477 = 190
Increase as share of 2024:              190 / 477 = 0.398 = 40% (rounded)

Closed within 15 days:                  88% of 667
In-depth assessment:                    12% of 667
In-depth cases, count:                  667 x 0.12 = 80.04 -> roughly 80 deals

In-depth cases in manufacturing:        53% of in-depth cases
Manufacturing share, 2024:              50% of in-depth cases
Change:                                 53% - 50% = 3 percentage points

In-depth share, 2025:                   12%
Prior-year comparison:                  12% - 4% = 8% (the report's stated 4% rise)

FISR adopted:                           17 June 2026
FISR applies from:                      17 January 2028

The point

The EU screened 667 notified investments in 2025, 40% more than the 477 in 2024, and sent 12% of them to in-depth review. For an importer buying a Chinese-owned EU plant or building one, the base case is a 15-day close and the tail is an in-depth assessment that concentrates in manufacturing, where 53% of the in-depth caseload sits. The new FISR applies from 17 January 2028, so a deal closing before that date runs under the framework the 2025 report describes. Price the 12%, not the 88%.